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Poll Roundup, 7/23/08

This has been a good week for McCain.  Depending where you are on the space/time continuum.  What I mean is this.  McCain’s polls have been improving this week.  The improvement numbers were consistent enough to be believed, i.e. it probably was not just data static and outliers.

On the other hand, the polls are measuring the prior week.  Obama’s overseas trip to Afghanistan and Iraq has provided him perhaps his best media week ever.  This is not a partisan observation because McCain’s camp believes this too.  So next week we’ll see if any impact registers on the polls. 

Rasmussen found that 63% said Obama’s trip does not make him more fit to be President.  I don’t know what that means.  Some thought he was fit, and the trip does not matter.  Some thought he was unfit, and the trip does not matter.

Ohio:  Rasmussen has McCain up by 6, 46-40%, which is better than the tie last month.  McCain leads by 10 if you factor in the leaners.  I don’t know which method is better.


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Trade and the 2006 elections

Public Citizen quantified the intersection of trade and the 2006 elections.  This is old news, but well worth reviewing because I’ll bet a lot of you never saw it.

Net fair trade gain of 2006 Mid-Term Election:
House races where fair traders replaced anti-fair traders: 19
Senate races where fair traders replaced anti-fair traders: 6
House races where fair traders took open seats vacated by anti-fair traders: 11
Senate races where fair traders took open seats vacated by anti-fair traders: 1
House races where anti-fair traders replaced fair traders: 0
Senate races where anti-fair traders replaced fair traders: 0

Glancing at the full report is worthwhile. (I have been warming to the "smart trade" rather than "fair trade" term, but have not focused grouped it yet).

Sure it was a rout by the Dems.  But look through a different lens.  An issue lens rather than a partisan one.  Was it Iraq?  "No" is a good argument. 

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Florida voters rate economy #1

No big surprise.  (Ditto Ohio… economy is #1) 

In Florida, the most important issues are: Economy 71%, Iraq 41%, Health Care 38%, Terrorism 19%, Illegal Immigration 19%, Other 5%

But look at the sub-questions for Florida (I did not look at Ohio just now).

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Poll Roundup Senate, 7/15/08

Minnesota Senate race:  Mixed news. No idea who is ahead.  I suppose it is better for Franken who was clearly behind in the last few months.  But Rasmussen could be an outlier to be ignored.  Rasmussen. 7/10. MoE 4.5%. (6/11 numbers in parentheses) Franken  (D) 44 (45) Coleman  (R) 42…

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Rangel gives up rent controlled office

Rangel was embarassed by disclosures that he has four rent-controlled apartments in New York City - Harlem to be exact.  Most people are lucky… very, very, very, lucky… to get one.  If you have one, it is your primary residence.  Rangel used one as a campaign office. He just gave…

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Poll Roundup, 7/14/08

South Dakota is the biggest surprise, today Obama down by only four.  Bad for McCain.  This after Rasmussen showed Obama ahead in Montana and tied in North Dakota.  

Last week McCain pulled back ahead in Missouri.  But other polls disagreed.  The shift to Obama appears real, at this moment, but there is no election today.  I make the "no election today" comment because Clinton was down by 17 in July 1992, and George H.W. Bush was down by 15 in July 1988. 

A Newsweek poll had Obama up by 15 three weeks ago, now has him up by just 3, 44-41.  Both polls are worthless, which is why I stick to Rasmussen, with a dose of SurveyUSA sometimes.  

The point:  A lead in July is surprisingly not predictive of the November winner.

South Dakota [MoE means Margin of Error]

Rasmussen. 7/9. MoE 4.5%. (March numbers in parentheses)

McCain  (R) 47 (48)
Obama  (D) 43 (38)

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Poll roundup, 7/10/08

North Dakota:  Obama and McCain tied.  43′s.  Bad for McCain. The state has voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate just once since 1936 and three times since 1916. Wisconsin:  Obama up 50-39%.  Widening lead. Illinois:  Obama leads in home state.  Yawn.  50-37%.

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McCain’s response to Gramm’s “Nation of Whiners” comment

It was a big uh oh for McCain.  Gramm’s comments that we are in a "mental recession", resulting from us being a "nation of whiners".  The first McCain campaign response

But in an initial statement published by Politico and then, seemingly, removed from its site, a McCain campaign aide actually stood by Gramm’s remarks, saying the interview as a whole was merely meant as a preview of the Senator’s economic agenda.

"Mr. Gramm was simply saying that we are laying out the economic plan this week," the piece quoted a "McCain official" as saying. "The plan is comprehensive, providing immediate near-term relief for Americans hurting today as well as longer-term solutions to get our economy back on track, secure our energy future and deliver jobs, prosperity and opportunity for the next generation. We’re laying out that plan this week with an emphasis on the critical importance of job creation, and it’s been a great success so far."

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McCain’s top economic guy: Mental recession perceived only by whiners

Phil Gramm is McCain’s top economic advisor.  The TOP one.  As in… no one is above Phil Gramm on economics.

He was interviewed by the Washington Times.  He is an unrepentant wacko free trader.  Gramm is a vice chairman of UBS (the Swiss bank), a post for which his Senate service apparently qualified him.  UBS is currently being investigated for conspiracy and tax fraud.  

Gramm thinks the recession is only perceived by whiners, but it does not exist.

"You’ve heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession," he said… "We have sort of become a nation of whiners," he said. "You just hear this constant whining, complaining about a loss of competitiveness, America in decline" despite a major export boom that is the primary reason that growth continues in the economy, he said.

This guy is from the moon.  The moooooooon… I say.

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Trouble for Rangel?

Rangel represents Harlem.  He is also chair of the House Ways & Means Committee.  A very powerful post.  Trade stuff goes through there.  And financial stuff.

Asian currency manipulation somehow can’t get marked up in that committee, and they approve every trade agreement they see.

But what’s in the news is… Rangel has four rent stabilized apartments in Upper Manhattan.  Four.  Nobody has four.  People will kill for one.  Apparently a kinda big developer is the landlord.  That developer is kinda zealous in kicking other tenants out of their rent stabilized apartments.  Tenants other than Charles Rangel.

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