PA-Senate:  Pat Toomey (R) has the lead over Joe Sestak (D) according to Ipsos.  47-37 among likely voters.  Toomey’s lead among registered voters is less, 40-37, but the likely voter results are more important.

Rasmussen, which has been Republican leaning (in relation to other pollsters) so far this election season, has Toomey up by six.  45-49.

I haven’t been as diligent recently about reporting poll data.  But I’ll do better as we get to Labor Day and beyond.  Keep in mind that a single poll is interesting, but less important than an aggregation of polls and trend lines.

The big story this year, for the Republicans, is that they are running strong because of voter intensity more than changing votes from 2008.  Certainly there is some vote changing that will occur, but Dem voters are not as likely to actually go to the polls as are Republicans.  So… even though Dems outnumber Republicans in the U.S., if the Dems don’t vote, they lose.

PA-Sen:  Public Policy Polling has Pat Toomey (R) leading Joe Sestak (D) by nine points, 45-36.

IL-Sen:  Public Policy Polling has Mark Kirk (R) slightly behind Alexi Giannoulias (D) by two points, 37-35.

Rasmussen has these two polls out.  The OH Senate result is very out of sync with the PPP poll, while the PA Senate result is consistent with PPP above.

OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 45%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 46%, Joe Sestak (D) 37%

House races in PA

A GOP pollster released bleak results for Dems, including these.  Party affiliated poll releases should be taken with a grain of salt, because they are often wildly inaccurate, usually because of flawed methodology.  But these poll numbers below are at least consistent with the general anti-Dem trend.

PA-03: Mike Kelly (R) 52%, Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) 38%
PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 52%, Rep. Chris Carney (D) 37%
PA-11: Lou Barletta (R) 52%, Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 41%
PA-12: Tim Burns (R) 44%, Rep. Mark Critz (D) 40%

PA-Sen:  Rasmussen has Pat Toomey (R) ahead of Joe Sestak (D) by eight points, 45%-39%.

PA-Sen:  Republican Pat Toomey was ahead of Democrat Joe Sestak in late March.  Sestak got his post-primary bounce, and PPP has him tied now.  But there is room to move for both.  They are still relatively unknown as 42-44% of voters don’t know enough about either to form an opinion.

PA-Gov:  Republican Tom Corbett, current attorney general, has a double digit lead over the Democrat Dan Onorato.