KY-Pres from Rasmussen:  McCain over Obama, 51-35%

MS-Pres from Rasmussen:  McCain over Obama, 50-44%

TX-Pres from Rasmussen:  McCain over Obama, 48-39%

OH-Pres from SurveyUSA: Obama over McCain, 48-46%

The SUSA Ohio poll shows the pitfalls of how you crunch the numbers.  A Democrat leaning blog has this to say.

But it's the SurveyUSA result in Ohio that I want to focus on. Obama leads by 2 here, but had been ahead by 9 in SurveyUSA's may poll of the state. That previous poll had shown a heavily Democratic sample -- 52 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican, 18 percent independent -- and had triggered a lot of discussion about whether pollsters should be weighting their results by party ID. SurveyUSA does not do so -- although if it had applied the May distribution of party IDs to this poll, it would have shown Obama ahead by 10-11 points rather than by 2. Conversely, if SurveyUSA had applied the June party ID distribution to its May poll, that poll would have shown a dead heat rather than Obama ahead by 9. 

I generally only reprint polls that are credible.  "Credibility" means they seem to have been found accurate by poll-watchers looking at past performance numbers, i.e. polling vs. election results.  Rasmussen and SurveyUSA are probably the top performers.  Quinnipiac does reasonably well, but is regional.  Zogby does not perform well.

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