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Warren Buffett's excellent 2003 article in Fortune, Squanderville
versus Thriftville, is classic. I had some trouble finding it
before, so am enshrining it here, below the fold. Wouldn't it be
great if someone actually acted on the piece 5 years ago? We'd
have some countermeasures in place and be headed in a different
economic direction.
****
Squanderville versus Thriftville
By Warren Buffet
Oct 2003 FORTUNE
I'm about to deliver a warning regarding the U.S. trade deficit and
also suggest a remedy for the problem. But first I need to mention two
reasons you might want to be skeptical about what I say. To begin, my
forecasting record with respect to macroeconomics is far from
inspiring. For example, over the past two decades I was excessively
fearful of inflation. More to the point at hand, I started way back in
1987 to publicly worry about our mounting trade deficits -- and, as you
know, we've not only survived but also thrived. So on the trade front,
score at least one "wolf" for me. Nevertheless, I am crying wolf again
and this time backing it with Berkshire Hathaway's money. Through the
spring of 2002, I had lived nearly 72 years without purchasing a
foreign currency. Since then Berkshire has made significant investments
in -- and today holds -- several currencies. I won't give you
particulars; in fact, it is largely irrelevant which currencies they
are. What does matter is the underlying point: To hold other currencies
is to believe that the dollar will decline.
Both as an American and as an investor, I actually hope these
commitments prove to be a mistake. Any profits Berkshire might make
from currency trading would pale against the losses the company and our
shareholders, in other aspects of their lives, would incur from a
plunging dollar.
But as head of Berkshire Hathaway, I am in charge of investing its
money in ways that make sense. And my reason for finally putting my
money where my mouth has been so long is that our trade deficit has
greatly worsened, to the point that our country's "net worth," so to
speak, is now being transferred abroad at an alarming rate.
A perpetuation of this transfer will lead to major trouble. To
understand why, take a wildly fanciful trip with me to two isolated,
side-by-side islands of equal size, Squanderville and Thriftville. Land
is the only capital asset on these islands, and their communities are
primitive, needing only food and producing only food. Working eight
hours a day, in fact, each inhabitant can produce enough food to
sustain himself or herself. And for a long time that's how things go
along. On each island everybody works the prescribed eight hours a day,
which means that each society is self-sufficient.
Eventually, though, the industrious citizens of Thriftville decide to
do some serious saving and investing, and they start to work 16 hours a
day. In this mode they continue to live off the food they produce in
eight hours of work but begin exporting an equal amount to their one
and only trading outlet, Squanderville.
The citizens of Squanderville are ecstatic about this turn of events,
since they can now live their lives free from toil but eat as well as
ever. Oh, yes, there's a quid pro quo -- but to the Squanders, it seems
harmless: All that the Thrifts want in exchange for their food is
Squanderbonds (which are denominated, naturally, in Squanderbucks).
Over time Thriftville accumulates an enormous amount of these bonds,
which at their core represent claim checks on the future output of
Squanderville. A few pundits in Squanderville smell trouble coming.
They foresee that for the Squanders both to eat and to pay off -- or
simply service -- the debt they're piling up will eventually require
them to work more than eight hours a day. But the residents of
Squanderville are in no mood to listen to such doomsaying.
Meanwhile, the citizens of Thriftville begin to get nervous. Just how
good, they ask, are the IOUs of a shiftless island? So the Thrifts
change strategy: Though they continue to hold some bonds, they sell
most of them to Squanderville residents for Squanderbucks and use the
proceeds to buy Squanderville land. And eventually the Thrifts own all
of Squanderville.
At that point, the Squanders are forced to deal with an ugly equation:
They must now not only return to working eight hours a day in order to
eat -- they have nothing left to trade -- but must also work additional
hours to service their debt and pay Thriftville rent on the land so
imprudently sold. In effect, Squanderville has been colonized by
purchase rather than conquest.
It can be argued, of course, that the present value of the future
production that Squanderville must forever ship to Thriftville only
equates to the production Thriftville initially gave up and that
therefore both have received a fair deal. But since one generation of
Squanders gets the free ride and future generations pay in perpetuity
for it, there are -- in economist talk -- some pretty dramatic
"intergenerational inequities."
Let's think of it in terms of a family: Imagine that I, Warren Buffett,
can get the suppliers of all that I consume in my lifetime to take
Buffett family IOUs that are payable, in goods and services and with
interest added, by my descendants. This scenario may be viewed as
effecting an even trade between the Buffett family unit and its
creditors. But the generations of Buffetts following me are not likely
to applaud the deal (and, heaven forbid, may even attempt to welsh on
it).
Think again about those islands: Sooner or later the Squanderville
government, facing ever greater payments to service debt, would decide
to embrace highly inflationary policies -- that is, issue more
Squanderbucks to dilute the value of each. After all, the government
would reason, those irritating Squanderbonds are simply claims on
specific numbers of Squanderbucks, not on bucks of specific value. In
short, making Squanderbucks less valuable would ease the island's
fiscal pain.
That prospect is why I, were I a resident of Thriftville, would opt for
direct ownership of Squanderville land rather than bonds of the
island's government. Most governments find it much harder morally to
seize foreign-owned property than they do to dilute the purchasing
power of claim checks foreigners hold. Theft by stealth is preferred to
theft by force.
So what does all this island hopping have to do with the U.S.? Simply
put, after World War II and up until the early 1970s we operated in the
industrious Thriftville style, regularly selling more abroad than we
purchased. We concurrently invested our surplus abroad, with the result
that our net investment -- that is, our holdings of foreign assets less
foreign holdings of U.S. assets -- increased (under methodology, since
revised, that the government was then using) from $37 billion in 1950
to $68 billion in 1970. In those days, to sum up, our country's "net
worth," viewed in totality, consisted of all the wealth within our
borders plus a modest portion of the wealth in the rest of the world.
Additionally, because the U.S. was in a net ownership position with
respect to the rest of the world, we realized net investment income
that, piled on top of our trade surplus, became a second source of
investable funds. Our fiscal situation was thus similar to that of an
individual who was both saving some of his salary and reinvesting the
dividends from his existing nest egg.
In the late 1970s the trade situation reversed, producing deficits that
initially ran about 1 percent of GDP. That was hardly serious,
particularly because net investment income remained positive. Indeed,
with the power of compound interest working for us, our net ownership
balance hit its high in 1980 at $360 billion.
Since then, however, it's been all downhill, with the pace of decline
rapidly accelerating in the past five years. Our annual trade deficit
now exceeds 4 percent of GDP. Equally ominous, the rest of the world
owns a staggering $2.5 trillion more of the U.S. than we own of other
countries. Some of this $2.5 trillion is invested in claim checks --
U.S. bonds, both governmental and private -- and some in such assets as
property and equity securities.
In effect, our country has been behaving like an extraordinarily rich
family that possesses an immense farm. In order to consume 4 percent
more than we produce -- that's the trade deficit -- we have, day by
day, been both selling pieces of the farm and increasing the mortgage
on what we still own.
To put the $2.5 trillion of net foreign ownership in perspective,
contrast it with the $12 trillion value of publicly owned U.S. stocks
or the equal amount of U.S. residential real estate or what I would
estimate as a grand total of $50 trillion in national wealth. Those
comparisons show that what's already been transferred abroad is
meaningful -- in the area, for example, of 5 percent of our national
wealth.
More important, however, is that foreign ownership of our assets will
grow at about $500 billion per year at the present trade-deficit level,
which means that the deficit will be adding about one percentage point
annually to foreigners' net ownership of our national wealth. As that
ownership grows, so will the annual net investment income flowing out
of this country. That will leave us paying ever-increasing dividends
and interest to the world rather than being a net receiver of them, as
in the past. We have entered the world of negative compounding --
goodbye pleasure, hello pain.
We were taught in Economics 101 that countries could not for long
sustain large, ever-growing trade deficits. At a point, so it was
claimed, the spree of the consumption-happy nation would be braked by
currency-rate adjustments and by the unwillingness of creditor
countries to accept an endless flow of IOUs from the big spenders. And
that's the way it has indeed worked for the rest of the world, as we
can see by the abrupt shutoffs of credit that many profligate nations
have suffered in recent decades.
The U.S., however, enjoys special status. In effect, we can behave
today as we wish because our past financial behavior was so exemplary
-- and because we are so rich. Neither our capacity nor our intention
to pay is questioned, and we continue to have a mountain of desirable
assets to trade for consumables. In other words, our national credit
card allows us to charge truly breathtaking amounts. But that card's
credit line is not limitless.
The time to halt this trading of assets for consumables is now, and I
have a plan to suggest for getting it done. My remedy may sound
gimmicky, and in truth it is a tariff called by another name. But this
is a tariff that retains most free-market virtues, neither protecting
specific industries nor punishing specific countries nor encouraging
trade wars. This plan would increase our exports and might well lead to
increased overall world trade. And it would balance our books without
there being a significant decline in the value of the dollar, which I
believe is otherwise almost certain to occur.
We would achieve this balance by issuing what I will call Import
Certificates (ICs) to all U.S. exporters in an amount equal to the
dollar value of their exports. Each exporter would, in turn, sell the
ICs to parties -- either exporters abroad or importers here -- wanting
to get goods into the U.S. To import $1 million of goods, for example,
an importer would need ICs that were the byproduct of $1 million of
exports. The inevitable result: trade balance.
Because our exports total about $80 billion a month, ICs would be
issued in huge, equivalent quantities -- that is, 80 billion
certificates a month -- and would surely trade in an exceptionally
liquid market. Competition would then determine who among those parties
wanting to sell to us would buy the certificates and how much they
would pay. (I visualize that the certificates would be issued with a
short life, possibly of six months, so that speculators would be
discouraged from accumulating them.)
For illustrative purposes, let's postulate that each IC would sell for
10 cents -- that is, 10 cents per dollar of exports behind them. Other
things being equal, this amount would mean a U.S. producer could
realize 10 percent more by selling his goods in the export market than
by selling them domestically, with the extra 10 percent coming from his
sales of ICs.
In my opinion, many exporters would view this as a reduction in cost,
one that would let them cut the prices of their products in
international markets. Commodity-type products would particularly
encourage this kind of behavior. If aluminum, for example, was selling
for 66 cents per pound domestically and ICs were worth 10 percent,
domestic aluminum producers could sell for about 60 cents per pound
(plus transportation costs) in foreign markets and still earn normal
margins. In this scenario, the output of the U.S. would become
significantly more competitive and exports would expand. Along the way,
the number of jobs would grow.
Foreigners selling to us, of course, would face tougher economics. But
that's a problem they're up against no matter what trade "solution" is
adopted -- and make no mistake, a solution must come. (As Herb Stein
said, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.") In one way
the IC approach would give countries selling to us great flexibility,
since the plan does not penalize any specific industry or product. In
the end, the free market would determine what would be sold in the U.S.
and who would sell it. The ICs would determine only the aggregate
dollar volume of what was sold.
To see what would happen to imports, let's look at a car now entering
the U.S. at a cost to the importer of $20,000. Under the new plan and
the assumption that ICs sell for 10 percent, the importer's cost would
rise to $22,000. If demand for the car was exceptionally strong, the
importer might manage to pass all of this on to the American consumer.
In the usual case, however, competitive forces would take hold,
requiring the foreign manufacturer to absorb some, if not all, of the
$2,000 IC cost.
There is no free lunch in the IC plan: It would have certain serious
negative consequences for U.S. citizens. Prices of most imported
products would increase, and so would the prices of certain competitive
products manufactured domestically. The cost of the ICs, either in
whole or in part, would therefore typically act as a tax on consumers.
That is a serious drawback. But there would be drawbacks also to the
dollar continuing to lose value or to our increasing tariffs on
specific products or instituting quotas on them -- courses of action
that in my opinion offer a smaller chance of success. Above all, the
pain of higher prices on goods imported today dims beside the pain we
will eventually suffer if we drift along and trade away ever larger
portions of our country's net worth.
I believe that ICs would produce, rather promptly, a U.S. trade
equilibrium well above present export levels but below present import
levels. The certificates would moderately aid all our industries in
world competition, even as the free market determined which of them
ultimately met the test of "comparative advantage."
This plan would not be copied by nations that are net exporters,
because their ICs would be valueless. Would major exporting countries
retaliate in other ways? Would this start another Smoot-Hawley tariff
war? Hardly. At the time of Smoot-Hawley we ran an unreasonable trade
surplus that we wished to maintain. We now run a damaging deficit that
the whole world knows we must correct.
For decades the world has struggled with a shifting maze of punitive
tariffs, export subsidies, quotas, dollar-locked currencies, and the
like. Many of these import-inhibiting and export-encouraging devices
have long been employed by major exporting countries trying to amass
ever larger surpluses -- yet significant trade wars have not erupted.
Surely one will not be precipitated by a proposal that simply aims at
balancing the books of the world's largest trade debtor. Major
exporting countries have behaved quite rationally in the past and they
will continue to do so -- though, as always, it may be in their
interest to attempt to convince us that they will behave otherwise.
The likely outcome of an IC plan is that the exporting nations -- after
some initial posturing -- will turn their ingenuity to encouraging
imports from us. Take the position of China, which today sells us about
$140 billion of goods and services annually while purchasing only $25
billion. Were ICs to exist, one course for China would be simply to
fill the gap by buying 115 billion certificates annually. But it could
alternatively reduce its need for ICs by cutting its exports to the
U.S. or by increasing its purchases from us. This last choice would
probably be the most palatable for China, and we should wish it to be
so.
If our exports were to increase and the supply of ICs were therefore to
be enlarged, their market price would be driven down. Indeed, if our
exports expanded sufficiently, ICs would be rendered valueless and the
entire plan made moot. Presented with the power to make this happen,
important exporting countries might quickly eliminate the mechanisms
they now use to inhibit exports from us.
Were we to install an IC plan, we might opt for some transition years
in which we deliberately ran a relatively small deficit, a step that
would enable the world to adjust as we gradually got where we need to
be. Carrying this plan out, our government could either auction "bonus"
ICs every month or simply give them, say, to less-developed countries
needing to increase their exports. The latter course would deliver a
form of foreign aid likely to be particularly effective and appreciated.
I will close by reminding you again that I cried wolf once before. In
general, the batting average of doomsayers in the U.S. is terrible. Our
country has consistently made fools of those who were skeptical about
either our economic potential or our resiliency. Many pessimistic seers
simply underestimated the dynamism that has allowed us to overcome
problems that once seemed ominous. We still have a truly remarkable
country and economy.
But I believe that in the trade deficit we also have a problem that is
going to test all of our abilities to find a solution. A gently
declining dollar will not provide the answer. True, it would reduce our
trade deficit to a degree, but not by enough to halt the outflow of our
country's net worth and the resulting growth in our investment-income
deficit.
Perhaps there are other solutions that make more sense than mine.
However, wishful thinking -- and its usual companion, thumb sucking --
is not among them. From what I now see, action to halt the rapid
outflow of our national wealth is called for, and ICs seem the least
painful and most certain way to get the job done. Just keep remembering
that this is not a small problem: For example, at the rate at which the
rest of the world is now making net investments in the U.S., it could
annually buy and sock away nearly 4 percent of our publicly traded
stocks.
In evaluating business options at Berkshire, my partner, Charles
Munger, suggests that we pay close attention to his jocular wish: "All
I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there."
Framers of our trade policy should heed this caution -- and steer clear
of Squanderville.
FORTUNE editor at large Carol Loomis, who is a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder, worked with Warren Buffett on this article.
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