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Now we have major polling operations actually asking about
trade. A first. This is a big deal. I would ask
different questions if I were a pollster, but why quibble.
I happen to think the best polling operations are Rasmussen and
SurveyUSA. Zogby, American Research Group, and Opinion Research
seem wrong more of the time.
Rasmussen just released a Texas poll
showing Obama leading Clinton 48% to 44%. The first time for
Obama leading in a Rasmussen poll. But the Texas election is now,
as absentee ballots are rolling in fast. Only the polling place
voting is March 4.
An interesting part of the Rasmussen survey focused upon NAFTA:
Thirty-three percent (33%) of those likely to vote in the Texas
Democratic Primary say that the North American Free Trade
Agreement—NAFTA—is good for the United States. Forty-one percent (41%)
say the opposite. In Ohio, NAFTA receives a much less favorable review
from Democratic Primary voters.
In Texas, 41% believe Clinton favors NAFTA while 25% believe she
opposes it. The opposite perception exists for Obama—46% believe their
party’s frontrunner opposes NAFTA while 17% believe he favors it.
I don't know if the results reflect reality, but its what these
voters believe. I think both Obama and Clinton have probably
moved on trade in a good way, and are likely closer in their views than
the poll suggests. But they leave a lot of verbal wiggle room
so far.
By the way, Rasmussen has Clinton up 46% to 42% in Pennsylvania, and 48% to 45% in Ohio, both show the Clinton lead slipping. The Ohio poll asked about NAFTA, with these results:
By
a 53% to 14% margin, voters believe that Obama opposes NAFTA while
there are mixed perceptions on where Clinton stands. Thirty-five
percent (35%) believe she favors NAFTA, 31% believe she opposes it and
34% are not sure. This issue is critical in a state that has lost
thousands of manufacturing jobs. Politically, these lower-income voters
have generally been supportive of Clinton throughout the primary season.
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