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Anybody still think trade deficits don't matter? |
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Written by Stumo
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Thursday, 28 February 2008 |
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The U.S. buys more than it sells. To the tune of about $711
billion in 2007. We all know that we cannot spend more than we
make in our households or businesses. But the Very. Serious.
People. in Washington told us deficits don't matter.
America has
become the biggest debtor nation in the world. When other
countries became debtors with major problems, we and the IMF offered
financial package contingent on austerity plans. But when America
becomes a debtor, we spend more money (can you say "stimulus package?")
and lower interest rates for cheaper money.
I don't pretend to
know whether a stimulus package is good or bad, but the underlying
problem is our trade deficit that puts us in hock to other
countries.
Bernanke wants to lower interest rates again. A temporary fix at best.
The hope is that lower interest rates will encourage consumers and
businesses to spend more, while the risk is that the spending will
aggravate inflation.
But the success or failure of the Feds strategy could depend on
something outside Mr. Bernankes immediate control: foreign confidence
in the American dollar and foreign willingness to keep financing the
United States huge external debt.
America. The lone superpower.
Imagine if Bernanke weighed in and said the U.S. must pursue trade surpluses as a national strategy. What about it Ben?
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In the news
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The following article appeared on the online site for Manufacturing & Technology News on November 17, 2008 and was written by Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration.
By most accounts the U.S. economy is in serious trouble. Robert Reich, an adviser to President-elect Obama, calls it a "mini-depression," but that designation might be optimistic. Russian economist Mikhail Khazin says that the "U.S. will soon face a second Great Depression." It is possible that even Khazin is optimistic.
I cannot predict the future. However, I can explain what the problems are, how they differ from past times of troubles and why traditional remedies, such as the public works programs that Reich proposes, are unlikely to succeed in reviving the U.S. economy. |
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