The following was written by Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.

Friday’s Jobs Report
Unemployment Headed for 8 Percent  

Friday, the Labor Department will report employment data for December. In November, the economy lost 533,000 jobs, and the consensus forecast is for another 475,000 jobs lost in December.  My forecast is for a 480,000 loss.

The ADP estimate of private sector employment released Wednesday indicates much larger job losses than those forecasted by economists—something in the range of 700,000 for December. However, that report has not effectively tracked BLS data in the past. The methodology of the ADP report has been revised, and it remains to be seen whether it will better anticipate the Labor Department numbers by a few days.

Unemployment should reach 7 percent and is headed for 8 percent before the end of 2009.