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China is set to become the world's biggest polluter.
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Why Coal Is to Get Additional Attention
By NEIL KING JR. in Washington and SPENCER SWARTZ in London
November 8, 2007; Page A4, Wall Street Journal
The International Energy Agency painted a tough energy outlook
for coming years, with tightening oil supplies and a surge in
global-warming emissions as China and India burn more coal to power
their booming economies.
The industrialized world's energy watchdog also predicted fast-growing
China will displace the U.S. as both the world's biggest polluter this
year and the largest energy consumer by 2010, based on current trends.
(read more).
The Paris group, in its annual forecast, said a number of factors,
including the cost of oil, will contribute to a boom in coal. Aging and
less-productive oil fields and resistance among major oil exporters to
build spare oil capacity will make crude oil and natural gas more
expensive and prompt developing countries to turn increasingly to the
world's dirtiest fossil fuel. The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook
also details a continued surge in oil demand that could result in a
serious supply crunch around 2015. The agency portrays a world that by
2030 will be consuming 55% more energy than it is now, with almost half
of the growth because of soaring demand in China and India.
While oil will remain the world's largest source of energy in terms of
metric tons of oil equivalent, at 32%, coal's share is expected to jump
to 28%, up from 25% now, contributing to a 57% increase in carbon
emissions. Barring unforeseen changes in government policy to reduce
oil consumption, the IEA predicts world-wide oil demand will hit 116
million barrels a day by 2030, up from about 85 million barrels a day
now. Electricity use will nearly double, with most of the globe's new
plants burning coal.
For most economies, the tough question is on the supply side. The IEA
foresees a boost in production from new fields in the Middle East,
particularly Saudi Arabia, but warns that "it is very uncertain"
whether these new sources "will be sufficient to compensate for the
decline in output at existing fields" in the Middle East and among
other producers such as Russia, Mexico and Venezuela.
The resulting pinch in supply could result in "an abrupt escalation in
oil prices" around 2015, an event the agency said "cannot be ruled out."
The jump in oil prices to nearly $100 a barrel from about $50 in early
January has invigorated debate over whether oil prices will go far
higher in coming years, or will taper off from a level that some
critics insist is largely driven by speculation. Yesterday, oil futures
on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 33 cents, or 0.3%, to $96.37.
The IEA says consumers and governments globally are doing too little to
improve energy-supply security and to cut pollution. Even under the
most optimistic assumptions, global carbon emissions -- the main
culprit blamed for global warming -- will be 25% higher in 2030 from
today's levels. "The pathway we're on is not sustainable," either for
the health of the environment or for securing stable energy supplies in
the future, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka told journalists in
London. "Time is running out."
China and India are setting the tone of global energy markets with the
size of their populations, each over one billion, and double-digit
economic-growth rates. The IEA predicts that the two countries combined
will import more oil in 2030 than Japan and the U.S. do today. China
and India will account for 80% of the growth in coal consumption over
the next two decades, with China tapping domestic supplies but India
having to import more of what it needs. While the IEA focused its most
recent outlook on China and India, it also forecast demand growth in
the Middle East. Oil use there is expected to hit 7.9 million barrels a
day by 2015, more than twice the predicted demand in India.
Renewable energy sources such as solar will grow in use in certain
areas, like the United Kingdom, but the current logistical challenges
and costs of using and developing them mean all renewable energy
sources will remain a fraction of total energy use globally in 2030 at
about 10%, unchanged from today.
Write to Neil King Jr. at
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and Spencer Swartz at
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