Forecast        Previous Observation
                                            
Week of July 28

July 29
Consumer Confidence – July        50.1%                50.4
S&P Case/Shiller Index- May        -1.3                -1.6        Ten City Index
                                -1.1                -1.4        Twenty City Index
July 30
ADP Employment – July         -55k                -79K

July 31
GDP – Q2 (a)                          1.8%                1.0
GDP Deflator                        0.9                2.7
PCE                                2.0                1.1
PCE Deflator                        4.3                3.6
PCE Core Deflator                2.3                2.3        (Appendix Table A)

Employment Cost Index – Q2        0.7%                0.7
Initial Unemployment Claims        380K                406
Chicago PMI – July                49.0                49.6

August 1
Nonfarm Payrolls – June        -60k                -62
Manufacturing Payrolls                -35                -33
Unemployment Rate                5.6%                5.5
Average Work Week                33.7hrs                33.7
Hourly Earnings                0.3%                0.3

Construction Spending – June        -0.3%                -0.4

ISM Manufacturing – July         50.0                50.2
ISM Prices                        85.0                91.5

Auto Sales - July                13.7m                13.64*
   *SAAR as published by Motor Intelligence                

Week of August 4

August 4
Personal Income – June        -0.2%                1.9
Personal Spending                0.5                0.8
PCE Price Index                1.1                0.4
Core PCE Price Index                0.3                0.1
Real Personal Spending        -0.6                0.4

Factory Orders – June                0.9%                0.6
Durable Goods                        0.8                0.0
Nondurable Goods                1.0                1.2

August 5
ISM Services – July                48.0                48.2
ISM Prices                        80.0                84.5
ISM Business Activity                50.0                49.9

FMOC                                2.0%                2.0

August 7

Consumer Credit - Jun                $7.8b                7.8
Pending Home Sales - June        85.0                84.7

August 8
Nonfarm Productivity -         Q 2(p)        %2.7                2.6
Wholesale Inventories – June        0.6%                0.8

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.

 

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