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Morici: Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data |
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Written by LNC
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Thursday, 31 July 2008 |
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Forecast Previous Observation
Week of July 28
July 29
Consumer Confidence – July 50.1% 50.4
S&P Case/Shiller Index- May -1.3 -1.6 Ten City Index
-1.1 -1.4 Twenty City Index
July 30
ADP Employment – July -55k -79K
July 31
GDP – Q2 (a) 1.8% 1.0
GDP Deflator 0.9 2.7
PCE 2.0 1.1
PCE Deflator 4.3 3.6
PCE Core Deflator 2.3 2.3 (Appendix Table A)
Employment Cost Index – Q2 0.7% 0.7
Initial Unemployment Claims 380K 406
Chicago PMI – July 49.0 49.6
August 1
Nonfarm Payrolls – June -60k -62
Manufacturing Payrolls -35 -33
Unemployment Rate 5.6% 5.5
Average Work Week 33.7hrs 33.7
Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.3
Construction Spending – June -0.3% -0.4
ISM Manufacturing – July 50.0 50.2
ISM Prices 85.0 91.5
Auto Sales - July 13.7m 13.64*
*SAAR as published by Motor Intelligence
Week of August 4
August 4
Personal Income – June -0.2% 1.9
Personal Spending 0.5 0.8
PCE Price Index 1.1 0.4
Core PCE Price Index 0.3 0.1
Real Personal Spending -0.6 0.4
Factory Orders – June 0.9% 0.6
Durable Goods 0.8 0.0
Nondurable Goods 1.0 1.2
August 5
ISM Services – July 48.0 48.2
ISM Prices 80.0 84.5
ISM Business Activity 50.0 49.9
FMOC 2.0% 2.0
August 7
Consumer Credit - Jun $7.8b 7.8
Pending Home Sales - June 85.0 84.7
August 8
Nonfarm Productivity - Q 2(p) %2.7 2.6
Wholesale Inventories – June 0.6% 0.8
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.
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