This has been a good week for McCain.  Depending where you are on the space/time continuum.  What I mean is this.  McCain's polls have been improving this week.  The improvement numbers were consistent enough to be believed, i.e. it probably was not just data static and outliers.

On the other hand, the polls are measuring the prior week.  Obama's overseas trip to Afghanistan and Iraq has provided him perhaps his best media week ever.  This is not a partisan observation because McCain's camp believes this too.  So next week we'll see if any impact registers on the polls. 

Rasmussen found that 63% said Obama's trip does not make him more fit to be President.  I don't know what that means.  Some thought he was fit, and the trip does not matter.  Some thought he was unfit, and the trip does not matter.

Ohio:  Rasmussen has McCain up by 6, 46-40%, which is better than the tie last month.  McCain leads by 10 if you factor in the leaners.  I don't know which method is better.

Florida and New Hampshire:  American Research Group has those two states moving in McCain's direction.  I don't cite ARG, but they are reported consistent with other polls trending McCain recently. 

The left-leaning blog 538 has Obama's chances of winning in November pegged at the lowest point yet, though still above 50%.  

For the first time since shortly after clinching the Democratic nomination, we now have Barack Obama as less than a 60 percent favorite to win the election. Our simulations presently project Obama to win the election 58.4 percent of the time, with McCain winning the remaining 41.6 percent.

Georgia:  McCain up by 9.  48-32% 

Colorado:  Obama up by 7.  49-42%.

Florida:  Obama up by 1. Good for Obama.  First lead, though its really a statistical tie.

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Composites are the best : Stumo Pollster.com has the composite trends, which accounts for outliers, and is probably the best method generally. Fivethirtyeight.com has the best all around number crunching, even though they like Dems, they are hard core with numbers unobscured by partisan feelings. Rasmussen and SUSA had the best performance as individual polls in relation to actual primary election results. July 23, 2008 ... : China Watcher For what it's worth, Charlie Cook said recently that of all the national polls the most credible was Gallup's. That's because a) it is based on one of the largest, if not the largest, survey populations; and b) it includes a large number of cell phone holders. Many polls simply aren't worth what they cost. July 23, 2008

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