MI-Gov:  Congressman Peter Hoekstra (R) is leading the Republican pack in the primaries with 28% according to a local polling firm Denno-Noor.   The Dem side is not clear.  Republicans have the edge in Michigan, as of right now, to replace Jennifer Granholm.

PA-12:  John Murtha's death requires a replacement for his 12th District seat.  The Dem leadership chose a Murtha aide, Mark Critz.  Barbara Hafer (D) announced that she was going to primary Critz.  But now she is stepping aside, leaving the road clear for Critz on the Dem side. 

The most serious Republican candidate is Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. William Russell, who challenged Murtha in 2008.

The special election to replace Murtha will be May 18, 2010, the day of the PA primary election.

I tend to focus upon races in parts of the country that (1) have active CPA chapters or members; or (2) are otherwise interesting, usually because they are swing races or have national significance.

IL-Sen:  Rasmussen now has Alexi Giannoulias (D) polling ahead of Mark Kirk (R), 44-41. 

This is probably believable for two reasons.  First, Rasmussen is a pro-Republican outlier among all the pollsters.  So the fact that it has a Democrat ahead lends more credibility that if another pollster had a Democrat ahead.  Second, this is a 9 point swing towards Giannoulias as compared to the prior Ras poll on February 4, which was taken just after the Illinois primaries.

Rasmussen is the most prolific pollster this year, probably because it received a flood of private investment money last year.  Rasmussen has been criticized for being pro-Republican, but they have been accurate in the 2006 and 2008 elections.  This year, they are certainly a more pro-Republican outlier than the other polling companies as illustrated by Pollster.com, a service which aggregates the results of all polls.  There are three theories:  (1) Rasmussen is right; (2) Rasmussen is wrong; or (3) Rasmussen is wrong now, but will adjust its math so it becomes more right as we near election... thus protecting its credibility

On the pro-Dem side, there is a YouGov internet poll that does well for Democrats, but is regarded by many as unreliable.  

Voter intensity: The major variable is "voter intensity".  You can do a poll of all voters, or likely voters.  The latter is more reliable, generally, for election purposes.  But then there is the voter intensity variable.  Republican voter intensity is high, and Democratic voter intensity is low.  

The math is affected this way.  Nationally, there are more potential Democratic voters than Republican voters (and of course many independents).  But if Republicans turn out in greater percentages, they win.

Independents:  The other more well known variable is the independents... those that have not registered as D's and R's.  Since independents are approximately one-third of voters, if they trend D or R, it has a major electoral impact.

Rep. Louise M. SlaughterChairwoman, House Committee on Rules
Representing New York’s 28th District
 
PRESS RELEASE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
MEDIA CONTACT
Victoria Dillon (202) 225-2888
 
Slaughter Leads “Positive” Discussion with Trade Rep Kirk  

WASHINGTON- Reps. Louise M. Slaughter (D-NY) and Michael H. Michaud (D-ME) today led a meeting of  the House Trade Working Group’s meeting with United States Trade Representative Ron Kirk regarding continuation of U.S participation in talks for a Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement with Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Chile, New Zealand, Singapore, and Vietnam. 

The meeting focused on the House Trade Working Group’s key issues, which include labor and environmental standards, food safety and agricultural terms, procurement rules, democracy clauses, services deregulation, access to medicines, and foreign investor rights.