The main ag commodity organizations have always been pushing trade agreements hard.  Readers of this blog are aware of my contempt for those who talk about the export side of the net trade equation only.  They are dishonest.

In the hogs/pork and cattle/beef trade, there is another way to hide the ball.  We are a net exporter of pork and a net importer of beef, which are what the big meatpackers sell.  But we are net importer of hogs and cattle - the precursors of pork and beef - which are what farmers and ranchers sell. 

In the marketplace, the imports of hogs and cattle depress farm/ranch prices, lowering the cost of meat packer procurement.  But wholesale meat prices - a different product from hogs and cattle - are somewhat buoyed by the exports.  Good for multinational meatpackers, bad for ag producers.

Now there is a push to enter into some sort of additional trade agreements with China and Russia.  China is the "holy grail" for the pork industry, according to the National Pork Producers Council. 

That's what we've heard from other sectors, and we see how that worked out.  But more specifically, ag economist Daryll Ray from the University of Tennessee debunks that "export opportunity" fantasy:

[A] clear-eyed look at their history and stated intentions indicates that their goal is to become virtually self-sufficient in meat.

With regard to Russia, Agrinews’ Thorstensen reports that “NPPC not only wants to reach an agreement with Russia, it wants to increase the US quota share as a condition of [Russia’s] World Trade Organization accession.”

Where is the biggest, richest market in the world?  Right here.  We live in it.  And we give it away, thus losing market share in our own market.  With trade agreements that promise us fantasies of "export opportunity" that never seems to materialize. 

Not smart.

UPDATE:  I initially wrote that the U.S. is a net exporter of beef.  This is not true.  We are a net importer of beef.  

The following column was written by Daryll E. Ray, holder of the Blasingame Chair of Excellence in Agricultural Policy, Institute of Agriculture, University of Tennessee, and the Director of UT’s Agricultural Policy Analysis Center (APAC).  Daryll Ray’s column is written with the research and assistance of Harwood D. Schaffer, Research Associate with APAC.

The farm media is all atwitter over the announcement by the Obama administration that they have set a goal of doubling US exports in five years. This will include help for farmers in boosting their exports.

You will have to pardon us if we don’t get overly excited about the implications of this export initiative for US farmers.