PA-12:  John Murtha's death requires a replacement for his 12th District seat.  The Dem leadership chose a Murtha aide, Mark Critz.  Barbara Hafer (D) announced that she was going to primary Critz.  But now she is stepping aside, leaving the road clear for Critz on the Dem side. 

The most serious Republican candidate is Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. William Russell, who challenged Murtha in 2008.

The special election to replace Murtha will be May 18, 2010, the day of the PA primary election.

I tend to focus upon races in parts of the country that (1) have active CPA chapters or members; or (2) are otherwise interesting, usually because they are swing races or have national significance.

IL-Sen:  Rasmussen now has Alexi Giannoulias (D) polling ahead of Mark Kirk (R), 44-41. 

This is probably believable for two reasons.  First, Rasmussen is a pro-Republican outlier among all the pollsters.  So the fact that it has a Democrat ahead lends more credibility that if another pollster had a Democrat ahead.  Second, this is a 9 point swing towards Giannoulias as compared to the prior Ras poll on February 4, which was taken just after the Illinois primaries.

Rasmussen is the most prolific pollster this year, probably because it received a flood of private investment money last year.  Rasmussen has been criticized for being pro-Republican, but they have been accurate in the 2006 and 2008 elections.  This year, they are certainly a more pro-Republican outlier than the other polling companies as illustrated by Pollster.com, a service which aggregates the results of all polls.  There are three theories:  (1) Rasmussen is right; (2) Rasmussen is wrong; or (3) Rasmussen is wrong now, but will adjust its math so it becomes more right as we near election... thus protecting its credibility

On the pro-Dem side, there is a YouGov internet poll that does well for Democrats, but is regarded by many as unreliable.  

Voter intensity: The major variable is "voter intensity".  You can do a poll of all voters, or likely voters.  The latter is more reliable, generally, for election purposes.  But then there is the voter intensity variable.  Republican voter intensity is high, and Democratic voter intensity is low.  

The math is affected this way.  Nationally, there are more potential Democratic voters than Republican voters (and of course many independents).  But if Republicans turn out in greater percentages, they win.

Independents:  The other more well known variable is the independents... those that have not registered as D's and R's.  Since independents are approximately one-third of voters, if they trend D or R, it has a major electoral impact.

Today we will hear more from Obama on his "doubling exports" goal.  

BULLETIN -- Off embargo at 6 a.m.: President Obama today will sign an Executive Order creating an Export Promotion Cabinet made up of the Departments of State, Treasury, Commerce, Agriculture, Commerce, and other federal agencies whose work affects exports. The President will also re-establish the President’s Export Council, the principal private sector advisory committee on international trade, and name two prominent American business leaders – Jim McNerney, President and CEO of the Boeing Company, and Ursula Burns, CEO of Xerox Company -- to lead the Council. At 11:15 a.m., Obama will announce new details of National Export Initiative, during the Export-Import Bank’s Annual Conference, at the Omni Shoreham Hotel.

You will also hear more on China currency manipulation, but not from the Administration.  More soon.

Yesterday, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk was dispatched to the House to talk with skeptical Representatives on trade.  Louise Slaughter (D-NY), a champion of trade reform, issued a modestly positive press release after the meeting.

The next step for the "doubling exports" goal apparently is this.  President Obama is establishing the President's Export Council.  Boeing and Xerox to head this advisory council.  More process, few results.

This may be a sleepy committee that meets once, gets press, and does not meet much later.  Or it may be a more substantial venue for doing some kind of work.  These advisory committees have access to government information, give advice and interface with bureaucrats.  They have access. 

I suppose we at CPA will have to look at getting committee members the right information.  Or we will ignore that committee.  It remains to be seen.

The full Politico article is below the fold.