China's growth may be - in large part - an arbitrary buildup of excess capacity that has produces stuff with nowhere to go.  If so, then they could be tempted to dump whatever they can on the U.S. market at hugely reduced - and unprofitable - prices.

In international trade, selling below cost of production is called "dumping" and is subject to antidumping duties.  The analogous practice in antitrust law is "predatory pricing"... where a monopolist targets a competitor's customers with below-cost prices to bankrupt that competitor.

This article makes the excess capacity-dumping risk connection, saying it is happening right now.

China faces a protectionist backlash next year because its manufacturers are saddled with overcapacity and are disposing of its excess output on world markets, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said Thursday.

China's big "stimulus package" could be having the downstream result of illegal dumping.

Dan DiMicco will be on CNBC this Wednesday night, December 2, at 8 PM Eastern  along with Leo Gerard, Jeff Immelt, Bill Ford.  The program's title is "The Future of 'Made in the USA'".

The link for additional information is here. 

Massachusetts will hold a primary election on December 8, 2009 to replace the late Ted Kennedy.

The winner of the Democratic primary is likely to win the general election.  Massachusetts is a blue state and the Republicans don't seem to have a top tier candidate.

The two top Dems are Martha Coakley, current attorney general, and Mike Capuano, currently the Congressman from the 8th District.  The fourth place Dem, Alan Karzei, was endorsed by the Boston Globe today.

The Boston Globe has Coakley at 43, Capuano at 22, Steve Pagliuca (Boston Celtics co-owner) at 15, and Khazei at 6.  Rasmussen has Coakley at 36, Capuano at 21, and Khazei and Pagliuca tied at 14.

Capuano has a strong record on trade reform.  His house record shows he voted for trade enforcement and against the free trade agreements in the last four years.  The only downside is that he was not a co-sponsor of the currency manipulation legislation that CPA supports.

Coakley has no record on trade that I am aware of.

Neither candidates' campaign websites mention trade policy. 

The trade association that led offshoring through imports of textiles is clamoring for the Colombia Offshoring Agreement to be passed.

Kevin M. Burke, president and CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association, writes in Roll Call that we must pass the Colombia FTA because two way trade will increase between the two countries.  That means when we import more, then two way trade goes up.

And we get "export potential" too!  Yup.  That "export potential" dream has worked really well so far.