I wrote yesterday about Obama's declining numbers and McCain's rising ones.  McCain should be falling because he is associated with the governing party, and is thus an incumbent.  But he is outperforming expectations, and outperforming the generic Dem/Rep ballot.  His maverick image distances him from the party.

But the economy is in shambles.  McCain has been clear on his plan, with Phil Gramm's help.  Obama has supported a stimulus. That's about it.

It is a clear opening for Obama, who could hit a home run if he could speak on the economy as well as he did on race.  But his campaign is big, and the Dems don't agree internally.

This article lays out some of this internal division. 

My opinion?  And I am always hesitant to express an opinion.  (ha ha).  If I am running for president, I talk about the economy, jobs, trade, American prosperity, and doing everything... everything... everything necessary to bring America back to strength and balance and growth.  People are sick of losing their jobs and farms.  They are worried.  Worried about this more than a terrorist attack, or some social issues.  Polls are clear... very clear.

It's economic security, national security, food safety.  It makes sense.  It is true.  The corporate wing of the Dems - the Robert Rubin Wing -  should be silenced on trade.  Their message does not work.

We need a leader.  A smart leader.  This year.

Whoever delivers that message, with clarity and confidence, wins.

Obama is now performing badly.  McCain is performing well.  At least in the polls.  Pundits look for the convention bounce, first for Obama next week, and then for McCain the week after.  I've seen numbers that the post-convention bounce lasts for only a few weeks, then entirely goes away, and thus means virtually nothing.

The economy could be the cutting edge issue for either campaign, but it is not.  Both candidates have poor messages on the economy and trade, an issue that Obama has the opportunity to rule given the current state affairs. 

Florida:  McCain back out front.  46-43%.

This is a good piece from Reuters UK. Comparing the candidates on trade.  I've reprinted it below the fold.

This is either funny or sad.  NAM president John Engler denies that China will lead the U.S. next year in manufacturing.

Remember Groucho Marx's time honored question? 

"Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?"

Different math, I suppose.  These people are why Congress has not acted.  Their message?  "What problem, we don't see a problem.  The problem does not exist."