KS-Sen: Roberts leads Slattery 52-40 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Stumo   
Friday, 16 May 2008

This is the only poll of this race I'm aware of.  Senator Roberts aggressively pushed U.S. farm policy towards a "free trade" based approach, claiming we would export our way to prosperity.  His 1996 "Freedom to Farm" bill was a big giveaway to Cargill, Tyson and ADM.  Too bad his numbers were astoundingly wrong.  We have lost our ag surplus. Roberts has never seen a trade agreement he did not like, and probably has not read one.

Jim Slattery is the challenger.  He was a KS Congressman until 1994, when he was beaten in the Gingrich revolution.  He is for trade reform, and for enforcing the rules. 

This is the first serious poll conducted in the race.  Rasmussen is a top tier polling outfit.  The 12 point deficit is surprisingly close.  Slattery has been out of the public eye for 14 years.  No Democrat has been elected to the Senate in Kansas since 1932.  So I would expect a 25+ point deficit.   

 
WTO wants the U.S. to lower trade barriers? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Stumo   
Friday, 16 May 2008

Do they think we are idiots?  Well, maybe they're right.  I'll be interested to see what trade barriers they identified and how they mathematically compare with the barriers maintained by the Asian Tigers, Europe and others.

The article discusses an advance copy of the WTO report due out on June 9, 2008, which apparently says:

In the face of the economic uncertainty prevalent in early 2008, U.S. welfare would be best promoted by exploiting the adjustment capacity of the U.S. economy and continuing to reduce barriers to market access and other distorting measures.

So which barriers are they talking about?

1.   It must be currency manipulation.  No, wait.  We don't do that but most of Asia does.

2.   It must be that we tax imports, even as we reduce tariffs.  Nope.  Wrong again.  Over 140 of our trading partners do that, and thus have not reduced their tariffs in 40 years.  But we don't.  We unilaterally disarm.

3.   It must be that our environmental rules do not meet international protocols.  Nope.  That's China and India. 

4.   Does the U.S. government own most of our economy and thus hide massive subsidies?  No.  That's China.

5.   It must be our poor labor laws.  Er.  I guess not.

Well.  We'll see what they want along the lines of more unilateral economic disarmament, more outsourcing from the U.S. rules, etc. in the face of protectionism and mercanitilism by everyone else.  Funny how their protectionism gives them growing economies, and our free trade gives us lessened economic growth and shrinking agriculture and manufacturing.

 
Treasury: China not a currency manipulator PDF Print E-mail
Written by Stumo   
Friday, 16 May 2008

Everybody knows China manipulates currency... except the U.S. Treasury.  They didn't get the memo.  Treasury must issue reports each year identifying currency manipulation, and, by golly, has never found it. No matter how hard they look.

Odd language though, because it looks like they found currency rates set by the Chinese government:

In the report, the Treasury Department said, “China needs to intensify its efforts to rebalance its economy” by bolstering domestic demand to reduce reliance on imports and by changing its financial system to let the yuan’s foreign exchange value be set by the markets rather than by the government. 

Maybe someone can tell me the distinction between "foreign exchange value... set by the ... government" and currency manipulation.  I'm not smart enough to get it.  Looks like cheating to me.


This came in an email to me today on the topic

For the next to last time, the Bush Treasury has declined to cite China, or any other mercantilist country, as a currency manipulator.  According to press reports, Its latest report was sent to Congress yesterday.

Three observations:

*  Like NAM and other apologists for the status quo, Treasury derives a figure of 18.4 percent for the nominal appreciation to date.  That is accurate but misleading, especially when compared to the usual 40 percent revaluation goal. They do so by measuring the change in US cents for the value of one renminbi; in those terms the renminbi would have to rise by well over 50 percent to reach the same level as our 40 percent target for RMB per dollar.  When calculated in terms of the change in the number of RMB per dollar, the figure for the nominal appreciation to date is lower -- about 15 percent from the pre-July 2005 level.  When corrected for inflation (something we hope the CCC will be able to do soon), the effective change is even smaller.  By inlfating the progress, Treasury simply calls more attention to the failure of its diplomatic efforts.

*  Treasury looked at an earlier period and thus did not have to deal with the recent "stalling" in the rate of appreciation, as reported in the Financial Times of May 12.  This morning the RMB trraded at 6.99100 to the dollar; a month ago on April 15 the rate was 6.99250.  No matter how you slice that, the appreciation process has in fact stalled.

*  All this goes to show that Treasury has neither the will nor the means to persuade China (or any other mercantilist) to live up to IMF Article 4 obligations.

If this were just a game, we might say that Ways and Means punted in its March letter when it was only second down and five to go.  Now Treasury on the first play from scrimmage has quick kicked.  The ball lies on the ground downfield.  Will anyone pick it up and run?

 
McCain campaign chief working for Ukrainian party PDF Print E-mail
Written by Stumo   
Thursday, 15 May 2008

Ahh, patriotism.  First Hillary Clinton's campaign chief was caught working for Colombia's government.  

Now McCain's campaign chief is caught working for Vladimir Putin's favorite political party in Ukraine.

A consultant to Sen. John McCain hired a public-relations firm last year to burnish the U.S. image of a Ukrainian political party backed by Russian leader Vladimir Putin, according to documents filed with the Justice Department.

The lobbying firm of Davis Manafort Inc. arranged for the public-relations firm's work through an affiliate last spring, at the same time Davis Manafort was being paid by the Republican presidential candidate's campaign. The firm is co-owned by lobbyist Rick Davis, manager of Sen. McCain's presidential campaign, and longtime Republican strategist Paul Manafort.

 
GE to sell appliance unit to Asia? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Stumo   
Thursday, 15 May 2008

GE appliances is on the block.  China government subsidies make it attractive for Chinese companies to buy. 

Wall Street bankers are rushing to lay claim to potential bidders for the division. Among the expected suitors are Haier of China, which bid on Maytag two years ago; LG Electronics and Samsung, both of South Korea; Bosch of Germany; Electrolux of Sweden, which makes Sears’s Kenmore line of appliances; and Controladora Mabe, a G.E. partner based in Mexico. 

 
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